Uncertainty

I'm not sure there is ever any real certainty in life. Sure, I'm certain when I press on the accelerator that the car will go faster, or that when I open my eyes, a facsimile of the world will appear in my head--catered to my perspective; but if one day one of those 'certainties' should fail to occur, I wouldn't really be surprised. Of course, there would be an initial shock and a sense of disbelief, but it would fade over time and I might realize that the car was out of gas or that I had woken up after trying a sleep mask for the first time. But say the car had gas and I wasn't wearing a sleep mask, isn't there always a slight possibility that they might just 'happen' anyway?

Yes. I subconsciously take for granted that something unusual might happen, while at the same time, taking for granted that everything will probably go just fine. Our decisions are governed by a risk-continuum whose parameters are decided based upon experience and popular lore. Should I go skinny dipping in shark-infested Monterey Bay at night after drinking half a fifth of vodka? Why not? I did it and nothing noteworthy happened. How about moving the family to a tropical environment and getting a decent-paying job with really good benefits? I did it and I hate my life.

I don't see a reliable connection between conscious decisions and their logical outcomes. Oh, you can probably rely on 'good' decisions most times... but not all. Many decisions that come to the forefront of my mind in a given day are received with consideration, and many are not. So how does one decide when a decision requires contemplation and when it does not?

It comes back to the 'gut'. When you know something but when you think about, you realize that you don't really 'know' the first thing about it... but, in some way, you do. It defies rational explanation. It is somehow uncertain to the part of you that thinks, but certain to the part of you that feels.